Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Trainline shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
| FY2024A | FY2025F | FY2026F | FY2027F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net ticket sales (£m) | ||||
| UK Consumer | 3,469 | 3,959 | 4,248 | 4,517 |
| International Consumer | 1,041 | 1,113 | 1,236 | 1,402 |
| Trainline Solutions | 785 | 909 | 993 | 1,072 |
| Group | 5,295 | 5,981 | 6,477 | 6,991 |
| Revenue (£m)1 | ||||
| UK Consumer | 185 | 206 | 200 | 211 |
| International Consumer | 49 | 56 | 64 | 74 |
| Trainline Solutions | 163 | 183 | 198 | 214 |
| Group | 397 | 445 | 462 | 499 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (£m)2 | ||||
| UK Consumer | 65 | 80 | 78 | 83 |
| International Consumer | (20) | (16) | (10) | (7) |
| Trainline Solutions | 78 | 92 | 102 | 112 |
| Group | 122 | 156 | 170 | 188 |
1 A reassessment has been performed of the internal transaction fee rate, payable by UK Consumer and International Consumer businesses to Trainline Solutions in order to access Platform One. This results in an upwards revision to the transaction fee. To aid comparability, prior year figures also reflect this revision to the transaction fee.
2 Adjusted EBITDA excludes exceptional items and share-based payment charges.
Last updated 16 December 2024. Based on the 10 analysts that have published numbers since Trainline's half year results announcement on 7 November 2024; excludes analyst estimates where change to internal transaction fee has not been reflected.
The financial forecasts presented above have not been prepared by and are not endorsed in any way by Trainline plc (“Trainline”). Trainline has not verified or commented on any individual estimates, nor does it intend to do so in the future. Trainline assumes no responsibility to update, revise or otherwise comment on any of the information contained in these forecasts. It should be noted that financial forecasts are, by definition, forward looking, and are therefore subject to various risks and uncertainties which are subject to change at any time.
Analysts covering Trainline
| Sell-side house | Analyst |
|---|---|
| Barclays | Andrew Ross |
| Berenberg | Ciarán Donnelly |
| BNP Paribas Exane | Alistair Johnson |
| Canaccord | Karl Burns |
| DB Numis | Gareth Davies |
| JP Morgan | Lara Simpson |
| Morgan Stanley | Ed Young |
| Peel Hunt | James Lockyer |
| Shore Capital | Katie Cousins |
| Stifel | Peter McNally |
| UBS | Ivar Billfalk-Kelly |